미 11월 PCE 연방준비제도(Fed) 기조 뒤집을 정도는 아냐

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation was muted in November, a step in the right direction for policymakers looking to cut interest rates further in 2025. https://t.co/DF7uo7BzwA

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Fed’s Williams Incorporated Some Trump Policies in 2025 Forecast https://t.co/RekfqQDHXi

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he adjusted his outlook for interest rates a little higher for 2025 but added he still expects borrowing costs to fall a “fair bit more” over the next 12 to 18 months https://t.co/OS8BQxEeyT

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Fed's Mary Daly says she is “very comfortable” with policymakers’ median projection of two interest-rate cuts next year, emphasizing the central bank can turn to a slower approach https://t.co/66Gm3XPRti

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, in explaining her dissenting vote at this week’s central bank meeting, said rates should be held steady until there’s more progress in cooling inflation https://t.co/nyhemqpjGA

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

 

11월 개인소비지출(PCE) 가격지수가 시장 예상치에 부합했습니다. 'PCE' : 예상치 0.2%, 0.1% MoM / 예상치 2.5%, 2.4% YoY 였고, '근원 PCE'(에너지와 식품 가격 제외) : 예상치 0.2%, 0.1% MoM / 2.8% YoY 였고, '슈퍼코어 PCE'(주거비 제외 근원 서비스) : 0.16% MoM로 집계됐습니다.

 

The US lifted a $10 million bounty on Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa after an American delegation met him in Damascus on Friday https://t.co/IfmP6Ilc53

— Bloomberg Middle East (@middleeast) December 20, 2024

 

Sunday Adelaja became a local celebrity. But now he wants to go home to educate Africans about Russia. He says they need to know about Vladimir Putin’s “imperialistic spirit”https://t.co/dyFgWq2124

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 21, 2024

 

Russia’s seaborne fuel exports are set to fall sharply after the country’s oil refineries scaled back processing https://t.co/0rUtzaJQVb

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) December 20, 2024

 

Hedge funds increased their bullish positioning on US crude by the most in more than a year on the prospect of sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil and the potential for additional Chinese economic stimulus. https://t.co/8lvisVLblr

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

US Treasuries gained after a closely watched batch of inflation data came in below expectations, leading traders to lift the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate reductions next year. https://t.co/ANQMu5kFjb

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

There’s no quick solution to incoming President Donald Trump’s demand that European nations buy more American oil and gas, writes @JLeeEnergy https://t.co/OSubrBa717

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) December 20, 2024

 

 

장·단기 커브전략에서 금리·환율의 상관관계에 관한 '기본공식'은 명목금리(실질금리 + 예상 인플레이션율 ↑) - 예상(원자재 ↑ 가격 추이) 인플레이션율 = 실질금리, OO(유가, 비트코인, 금 등 대체 투자 상품) ↑ '금리' ↑ OO ↓ 입니다. 주요 물가지표(예상 인플레이션율 ↓)가 시장 예상치를 하회하자 뉴욕 '유가' ↑ 와 '금 가격' ↑이 반등을 했습니다. 금리 '어떻게 될까'요? '1초 컷'이죠.

 

US consumer sentiment rose for a fifth month in December and views on inflation edged up https://t.co/w8skOvtWrg

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Workers at Starbucks stores plan to go on a five-day strike starting Friday to protest lack of progress in contract negotiations with the company. https://t.co/TRettA8OU7

— CBS News (@CBSNews) December 20, 2024

 

“When labor markets becomes tighter, discrimination becomes greater.” Companies that had promised to hire and promote more Black people following nationwide Black Lives Matter protests in 2020 are losing Black workers https://t.co/u6Vy6a4fBM

— Businessweek (@BW) December 20, 2024

 

 

미시간대에 따르면 12월 소비자심리지수 확정치가 74.0으로 최종 집계됐습니다. 이는 2024년 4월 이후 최고치입니다. 자, 어디에 넣어야죠? 예상 '인플레이션'율 아닌가요? 금리 '어떻게 될까'요? '1초 컷'이죠. 미시간대는 "향후 '가격 상승'을 피하기 위해 지금 구매가 유리하다고 판단한 소비자 심리에 도날드 '트럼프'가 반영됐다"고 분석했습니다.

 

Silver Point Capital plans to fight a SEC lawsuit claiming the hedge fund firm failed to enact policies to bar a consultant from sharing confidential information about bonds issued by Puerto Rico https://t.co/1GrH2mPp3h

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

As Donald Trump promises to deport migrants en masse from the US, the Dominican Republic provides a glimpse of what that might look like https://t.co/jjHeJdiuT2

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

 

미 11월 'CPI'와 'PPI'에서 나타난 인플레이션과 '관련' 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) '제롬 파월' 의장은 인플레이션 '상승 시' 2025년 '금리인하' 횟수를 4회 → 2회에 이어 '더 줄인다'고 말하였죠. 여기다 D-30일 '복귀'를 앞둔 '트럼프'는 캐나다, 멕시코 25%와 중국 10% 추가 '관세'를 부과하겠다는 중입니다.

 

In today's Bloomberg Deals: We look at the comeback of blank-check vehicles. Also, suitors line up for a big Intel divestiture while TPG nears a chunky telecom deal. https://t.co/8GB8eV5FlU

— Bloomberg Crypto (@crypto) December 20, 2024

 

A group of lenders to Aimbridge Hospitality, including KKR and Capital Research and Management, are in talks to restructure the hotel management company’s debt https://t.co/AlxgtiOAFn

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) December 20, 2024

 

 

3분기 'GDP 증가율'은 2분기 연속 3%가 넘었는데, 11월 소매판매는 예상치를 상회했고 '산업생산'은 예상치를 하회했습니다. 1월부터 금리동결 '가능성'이 나오는 가운데 '일론 머스크'와 '트럼프'는 공화당 '마이크 존슨' 하원의장이 극적으로 통과시킨 임시 예산안에 반대를 하고 있습니다. 뭐 해야 하죠? '1초 컷'이죠.

 

Your guide to Trump's Silicon Valley entourage https://t.co/RZnLTbokda

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) December 19, 2024

 

Investment trust discounts have been in the news this week, as activist investor Saba revealed that it wants to take over seven trusts with the goal of improving returns and shrinking discounts. Can private investors mimic this approach? https://t.co/dFSIb0bU67

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Strategists often miss the mark on S&P 500 forecasts, by a lot https://t.co/b7e5PR7JEA

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

An industrial recovery is finally expected to take hold in 2025 — right around when Trump's tariff plans might plunge manufacturers into fresh chaos. https://t.co/btuMMnjuTt

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

 

'일론 머스크'와 '트럼프'는 '부채한도' 상한을 폐지해야 한다고 말하였습니다. 테슬라(TSLA)와 슈퍼차저에 중국산 LFP 배터리를 쓰고 있는 '일론 머스크'는 전기차 세액공제 폐지 찬성으로 테슬라 외 미국 자동차 업계에서 전기차 사업을 포기하게 만들고 있습니다.

 

These are the Deep Cuts – the redacted, the obscure and the overlooked records buried in stacks of newsworthy releases. Read 2024's last edition of FOIA Files. https://t.co/NUEbe4WyDE

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Key benchmarks tied to US overnight funding fell, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s adjustment this week to the tools it uses to help control borrowing costs and keep these funding markets running smoothly. https://t.co/5rEwJFt52l

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

The amount of money investors park at a major Federal Reserve facility dropped below $100 billion for the first time since 2021 after policymakers adjusted the parameters this week https://t.co/tNn1KqLDyb

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

The dollar is headed for its best quarter in eight years as a resilient US economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook have bolstered its appeal https://t.co/CxllIbat0f

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

The Fed's cautious turn this week put inflation back on the map for investors — delivering a stress test to the Trump trade https://t.co/SEyNMAjidQ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

From trade wars to playing nice — @RChoongWilkins takes a look back at how China fared in 2024, who came up top and what's in store for the new year https://t.co/SzsSoYiJuC pic.twitter.com/uHQt2PtdPf

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) December 20, 2024

 

India has become one of the world’s leading markets for deals such as initial public offerings, smashing its record for money raised this year as investors snap up opportunities https://t.co/5KSrsjFcJV pic.twitter.com/PT1lFbrU53

— Bloomberg (@business) December 21, 2024

 

 

'트럼프'는 "강'달러'를 찍어서 '부채한도' 없이 쓰겠다"면서 미국 외 자동차 업계를 압박하고 있습니다. '재정적자'와 '역레포 잔액'은 한계인데도 정권은 '갈려 나가'고 있는 와중에 지지율·기부금이 원인으로 해석되는 감세는 해야겠으니 다른 국가에서 관세를 걷어서 매우려는 중입니다.

 

Auto sales around the world are expected to grow marginally next year on increased supplies of vehicles, but production levels are likely to fall as carmakers seek to rein in inventory levels https://t.co/Khqg1tMnKd

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Eleven months into 2024, Tesla is seeing a double-digit decrease in registrations.https://t.co/f2V4iN6juQ

— InsideEVs (@InsideEVs) December 20, 2024

 

Jim Caron on Going Shopping During the Big Market Selloff https://t.co/y2aKq6Bk9R

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

Hon Hai is putting its interest in pursuing Nissan on hold while the Japanese automaker is in negotiations for a potential merger with Honda, sources say https://t.co/yrAFPwjQ5F

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) December 20, 2024

 

 

12월 일본은행(BOJ) 통화정책회의는 '예상'데로 10월에 이어 3차례 연속 정책금리를 동결했습니다. 지난 10월에는 만장일치였으나 이번엔 9명 중 8명이 동결에 찬성했고 1명은 25bp 금리인상을 주장했습니다. 경제활동에 대한 평가는 소폭 하향, 물가에 대한 평가는 유지한 가운데 대내외 불확실성에 대한 경계감을 드러냈습니다.

 

Japan’s key inflation gauge strengthened for the first time in three months as the central bank continues to parse data before deciding on the timing of its next interest rate hike https://t.co/agHRJE6mnT

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

In rare criticism of its past policies, the Bank of Japan said former governor Haruhiko Kuroda's stimulus didn't change consumer psychology as much as planned, continuing a symbolic shift away from his decade of policy radicalism https://t.co/HSXJUcSgjo

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 20, 2024

 

 

리스크 요인으로 대외 수요 및 원자재 가격, 기업의 임금 및 가격 설정 행태 등 10월과 유사하게 언급됐습니다. 함께 공개한 광범위한 관점에서의 통화정책 검토 보고서는 비전통적 통화정책의 한계를 인식하고 단기 금리 통제를 통한 정책 운용에 집중하겠다는 의도를 내비쳤습니다.

 

Japan ramps up its warnings against currency speculation Friday after the yen slid to a five-month low following a hint from the central bank chief that he may wait longer than expected before raising interest rates https://t.co/GTWVdTbDFq

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) December 20, 2024

 

Economists at two major financial firms pushed out expectations for the Bank of Japan’s next interest rate hike to March 2025 from January after Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone in his monetary policy briefing https://t.co/yabu1jb10G

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 20, 2024

 

 

대내적으로 소비 경기 부양을 위해 필요한 실질임금이 재차 마이너스(-) 전환된 가운데 D-30일 앞으로 다가온 트럼프 복귀로 대외 정책 불확실성마저 고조가 됐습니다. BOJ 우에다 총재는 임금 인상 추이의 연속성을 확인하려는 뜻을 내비쳤고 그 시점을 2025년 '춘투' 임금 협상 결과가 도출되는 '3~4월'로 언급했습니다. BOJ 금리인상 시점은 '트럼프' 2기 정책 전개 양상에 따라 늦어도 1분기 말이 될 것이라는 전망이 나옵니다.

 

▲'역시' '정치'가 '후지면' 국민이 굶는다. '영웅', '채권'과 '달러' 투자의 '정석'(定石)으로 '금리', 산업, 고용, 소매, '주택'과 '부채' 재앙이 된 ★'트럼프'★ '미국'판 김건희 '일론 머스크' '탄핵' 운동 중입니다.▲

 

▲ 언론과 표현의 자유를 "입틀막"하고 블로그에 '글 썼다'고 '형사기소'한 '미국'과 '한국'에서 '핵무장'과 '증시 논란'의 '국정농단' '김건희' "오빠" '윤로남불'('구속 사유') 12.3 '내란 수괴' ★'윤석열'★ '감옥' 운동 중입니다.▲

 

▲ '블로그'의 모든 글은 저작권법의 보호를 받습니다. 어떠한 '상업적인 이용'도 허가하지 않으며, 이용('불펌') 허락을 하지 '않습니다'.

▲ 사전협의 없이 본 콘텐츠 무단 도용, 전재 및 복제, 배포를 금합니다. 이를 어길 시 '민, 형사상' '책임'을 질 수 있습니다.