연준, 올해 상반기 금리인하 없다

🚨 U.S. Inflation Data, Powell Testimony, More Earnings, and Trump Tariffs: What to Watch This Week

Here are some corporate, market and economic highlights to eye:

A thread 🧵 👇 pic.twitter.com/15RvvuMFCS

— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) February 10, 2025

 

Here are the key takeaways from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee https://t.co/0ILDGhANFe

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 11, 2025

 

🎙 As Trump rolls out a barrage of tariffs, what is Xi's game plan?

We unpack China's response and whether it can avoid a full-blown trade war with the US. Listen to the Big Take Asia Podcast ⤵ https://t.co/RXRmR62G04

— Bloomberg Podcasts (@podcasts) February 12, 2025

 

Democratic Republic of Congo signed a preliminary accord with a unit of Singapore’s Trident Digital Tech to develop a national digital identity and e-government system https://t.co/8y6rMz6iS5

— Bloomberg Africa (@BloombergAfrica) February 12, 2025

 

Elon Musk Baselessly Accuses Samantha Power of Corruption After She Hammered Him For Spreading 'Falsehoods' About USAID https://t.co/8duajeqbxh

— Mediaite (@Mediaite) February 11, 2025

 

 

 

이번 주 1월 CPI와 함께 "트리플" 변동성 재료인 '트럼프' 철강·알루미늄 '관세 발표'에 연이어 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) 제롬 파월 의장의 상원 반기별 증언이 나왔습니다. 우선, "실업률(상단 4.5%)은 낮은 수준에서 안정적으로 유지 중이지만, 강력한 고용시장이 물가 압력으로 작용하지는 않고 있다."면서 反이민정책의 임금상승을 판단하기 시기상조라고 말하였습니다.

 

Fed Chair Powell highlighted that policymakers still expect inflation to slow toward their 2% target, despite a shift in the US central bank's policy statement https://t.co/wYBzET9U9N

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 30, 2025

 

Inflation is proving sticky as Fed Chair Powell heads to the hill https://t.co/5Cb7h24IKK via @business

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) February 10, 2025

 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he anticipates inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank’s 2% goal https://t.co/EB5LwaveYZ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 11, 2025

 

DoorDash issued a disappointing profit outlook for the current quarter, despite surpassing Wall Street’s expectations for orders in the last three months of 2024. https://t.co/5AKpZf2BQ9

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) February 11, 2025

 

Growing competition in DeFi lending highlights how growth in that market hasn't rebounded as strongly as the rest of crypto, @MuyaoShen writes in the @Crypto newsletter https://t.co/wskfkBWIy7

— Bloomberg Crypto (@crypto) February 11, 2025

 

 

 

강력한 경제가 유지되는 가운데, "물가도 2%로 복귀 중이나 아직은 높은 수준이다"면서 "고용과 물가가 예상보다 빠르게 위축되거나 둔화될 경우에는 긴축 강도의 완화가 적절하지만, 경기 모멘텀이 유지되고 인플레이션이 고착화될 경우 생각보다 긴 시간 동안 긴축 정책 유지할 것"이며 "정책 제약을 '더 오래 유지'(H4L)할 수 있다"고 말하였습니다.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank will hold interest rates steady for the foreseeable future amid uncertainty over President Trump's policies and their impact on the economy https://t.co/YoCUfrzLVo

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 30, 2025

 

South Korea’s Mint has temporarily suspended sales of gold bars, adding to signs of widespread tightness across markets for physical precious metals https://t.co/pgBeX8WPuR

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) February 12, 2025

 

Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market https://t.co/NdvMo2RTaA

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) February 12, 2025

 

Ford CEO Jim Farley will warn members of Congress that the 25% tariffs President Donald Trump has proposed on Canada and Mexico would “blow a hole” in the US auto industry https://t.co/BEdRXp0Ctf

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 11, 2025

 

A free-to-read link to my latest @opinion column. I argue that the AI race is still wide open, and India should step up foundational research via universities and research institutions. The traditional tech industry is too risk averse to attempt moonshots. https://t.co/JwGA8BcXQ5 https://t.co/JAGsykupuL

— Andy Mukherjee (@andymukherjee70) February 12, 2025

 

 

 

'Modestly Restrictive'라는 새로운 워딩이 등장했는데, 현재 통화정책에 관해선, "양방향 리스크와 '불확실성'에 대응하기 적절한 곳에 위치에 있다. 늦은 여름 즈음 통화정책 리뷰 발표를 예상하지만 물가 목표 수준은 유지될 것이다. 물가의 추가 진전을 봐야 하니 서두를 이유가 없다."면서 올해 상반기 금리인하가 없을 것임을 시사했습니다.

 

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said it’s appropriate to keep interest rates steady for “some time” while policymakers await further downward progress on inflation and analyze the economic effects of new government policies. https://t.co/XMbLobwQQz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 11, 2025

 

Inflation likely remained stubborn last month based on economists’ estimates, backing the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to lowering borrowing costs https://t.co/42ZH5Uuk85

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 12, 2025

 

Top exclusive by @PhilAldrick @PronouncedAlva @Joe_Mayes

Rachel Reeves is in the red after the OBR downgraded its growth forecast to the Treasury last week

While bond market moves have stabilised, the growth downgrade is a bigger problem https://t.co/GnTdaHPYhi

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) February 11, 2025

 

Can Europe come together to respond to Trump’s tariffs? https://t.co/7RrT0Gtz9s via @Gmvolpi pic.twitter.com/knJITav1bt

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) February 12, 2025

 

Australia is “killing” the US aluminum market, a senior trade adviser to Trump said, in a potential blow to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s efforts to secure an exemption from tariffs https://t.co/8pJC9sTsgI

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 12, 2025

 

 

 

CPI의 약 35%를 차지하는 주거비에 관해선, 높은 모기지 금리는 통화정책이 아닌, 국채금리 상승이 '원인'이며 모기지 금리가 급락하더라도 주택 공급 부족상황은 바뀌지 않을 것이라, 낮은 모기지 금리가 낮은 주거비 물가로 반드시 귀결되지는 않을 것이라고 말하였습니다.

 

Treasuries dipped as traders anticipate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will reiterate monetary policy is on hold in remarks due later on Tuesday https://t.co/dm8vG5qOvR

— Bloomberg (@business) February 11, 2025

 

Fed Chair Powell pledged to remove language in a manual that tells officials to watch for “controversial commentary or activities” by a financial institution’s leadership when considering an application for a payment system account https://t.co/PvbuDAew1w

— Businessweek (@BW) February 11, 2025

 

China's long-running property crisis that's hobbled its economy and created a near $160 billion pile of distressed debt is suddenly sliding into a dangerous new phase.

Read The Big Take ⤵️ https://t.co/5er7hvvNqL

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) February 12, 2025

 

Wall Street's main indexes ended mixed as gains in Coca-Cola and Apple offset losses in Tesla, while investors parsed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments https://t.co/4p2TSTIqPy pic.twitter.com/6GO5wPekCF

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 12, 2025

 

Alibaba shares surge after reports that Apple has started working with the e-commerce pioneer to roll out AI features in China https://t.co/GWo85gl6dh

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) February 12, 2025

 

 

 

연준의 통화정책이 인플레이션을 유발했다는 비판에 "시장의 재정적자 전망과 기대 인플레이션이 장기 금리 흐름을 주도하고 있다."면서 현재 시장금리의 원인이 연준에 있지 않다고 했습니다. '테슬라'(TSLA) '일론 머스크가' 해고를 '주장'한 가운데, 법적으로 '트럼프'는 연준 이사 해임권한이 없다고 했습니다.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Senator Elizabeth Warren there is "no other federal regulator" examining big banks' consumer compliance without CFPB on the job. pic.twitter.com/jdChBEi6WM

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) February 11, 2025

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank doesn’t need to rush to adjust interest rates, again signaling that officials will be patient before lowering borrowing costs further https://t.co/r791LblakK

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) February 11, 2025

 

AMD gave an upbeat revenue forecast for the current quarter, signaling that it continues to win market share from Intel and benefit from demand for AI gear https://t.co/CVAX5wPACx

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) February 4, 2025

 

Super Micro rose after giving an aggressive long-term revenue outlook and saying it "believes" it will meet a Nasdaq deadline to file audited financial results. https://t.co/7bFVlOORCQ

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) February 11, 2025

 

Lyft issued a disappointing first-quarter gross bookings outlook, following a similarly muted forecast from rival Uber citing impact from the extreme winter weather and LA wildfires. https://t.co/dqSkcuPWMp

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) February 11, 2025

 

 

 

'트럼프'의 보호무역에 관해선, 연준의 공식 입장은 아니지만 "개인적으로 자유무역이 성장에 도움이 된다고 생각한다"라고 말하였습니다. 역레포 문제에 관해선, "준비금은 지금도 매우 풍부한 수준이고 대차대조표 축소는 지속될 것"이라며 시중에 유동성을 풀지 않을 것임을 시사하며 물가가 높은 수준임을 재차 강조했습니다.

 

CPI Day: Inflation has made a strange habit of roaring back in the early part of the year. Can we avoid the dreaded “January effect” in this report?

🎥 Tune in as @JonathanJLevin joins @AllisonSchrager and Thomas Tzitzouris for analysis: 8:25am ET https://t.co/ml67AISxxE

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) February 11, 2025

 

January CPI report expected to show headline inflation eased slightly amid rate cut debate https://t.co/Z4y2RrEKSp by @allie_canal

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) February 11, 2025

 

Trump’s tariff policies may have unintended risks ranging from stagflation to the erosion of US influence on the global stage, @elerianm says https://t.co/l8wOKjMD2C

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) February 11, 2025

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to adjust interest rates further: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/4WL54gwhfK

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 11, 2025

 

 

 

'트럼프'의 관세정책의 여파는 "현 시점에 예상이 불가하다"했으나 "중립금리는 코로나 19 이전 매우 낮은 수준 대비 (당연히) 상승했을 것이며 제조업이 경제에서 차지하는 비중이 줄어들었지만 여전히 중요한 산업이다"면서 "급격한 광의통화(M2) 증가가 인플레이션에 일부 기인한 것으로 판단한다."며 금리인하를 서두를 '필요 없다'고 말하였습니다.

 

 

▲'관세'를 정치적 전략으로 쓰고 있는 '금리·환율' 재앙 ★'트럼프'★'탄핵'과  '주댕이'를 가만 두질 않는 '미국'판 김건희, '친중' '테슬라'(TSLA) 증권 사기꾼 ★'일론 머스크'★ 감옥 운동 중입니다.▲

 

▲ '블로그'의 모든 글은 저작권법의 보호를 받습니다. 어떠한 '상업적인 이용'도 허가하지 않으며, 이용('불펌') 허락을 하지 '않습니다'.

▲ 사전협의 없이 본 콘텐츠 무단 도용, 전재 및 복제, 배포를 금합니다. 이를 어길 시 '민, 형사상' '책임'을 질 수 있습니다.