미국 경제 침체는 언제 시작되었나?

BREAKING:

US Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 151,000 M/M; Est. +160k

US Feb. Unemployment Rate 4.1%; Est. 4.0%

Tune in for live Jobs Day analysis 📊https://t.co/z6OF9kfMGU

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) March 7, 2025

 

US hiring remained firm in February and the unemployment rate edged higher, illustrating a labor market that’s cooling only gradually in the face of rising economic uncertainty https://t.co/bNpRTloNnh

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Trump says he's ending Public Service Loan Forgiveness for nonprofits involved with 'improper' activities https://t.co/hMUVEV6ejG

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) March 7, 2025

 

The federal government’s botched roll out of a simplified FAFSA form made it difficult to apply for federal student aid last year. Tell us about your experience https://t.co/wBUa6Bfsp4

— Bloomberg (@business) March 7, 2025

 

 

2월 '고용'이 전월보다 약간 낮아졌고 실업률도 상승한 가운데, '트럼프'가 '매스질'을 하라니까 '도끼질'을 해댄 DOGE('개xx') '일론 머스크'의 심한 정부 지출 절감의 영향이 아직 데이터에 반영되지 않아 노동 시장의 추이에 대한 불확실성이 남아있습니다.

 

Bloomberg @economics estimates tens of thousands of federal jobs have been cut in the six weeks since Trump took office.

📊 Tune in for live analysis as the numbers come in https://t.co/z6OF9kfMGU

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) March 7, 2025

 

Here are five key takeaways from the US employment report for February https://t.co/VNw6JoXLXs

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

US Treasuries rose, adding to their 2025 gains, after the monthly jobs report showed signs of weakness, leaving intact traders’ expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts later this year. https://t.co/41JWVdj919

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic. https://t.co/ROtr2XFRiH

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

 

10년물 금리는 한국시간 3월 8일(토) 오전 7:18분 '트럼프'가 캐나다·멕시코 무역협정(USMCA)으로 "오락가락"을 하는 동안 4.16% 최저치에서 4.301%까지 치솟았습니다. 4W·3M(4주, 3개월)과 10Y·5Y·30Y TIPS(물가연동채권)가 빠지는 현상이 나타났는데 이런 걸 Stagflation 또는 경기침체라 부르죠.

 

Jobs Day: Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.

Are we seeing the DOGE effect?https://t.co/z6OF9kfMGU

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) March 7, 2025

 

February’s jobs report might be as good as it gets, at least for a while https://t.co/MBBqvFCh2i

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

The US has become addicted to government spending, and “there’s going to be a detox period” as it moves away from it, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC. https://t.co/qjpuXtiBms

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

When Did the US Economic Slowdown Start? https://t.co/e59K06fTqs

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

 

'4일 기준' JP 모건체이스의 경기침체 확률은 '트럼프'가 당선된 지난해 11월 17%에서 두배 가까이 증가한 31%로 나타났으며 골드만삭스의 경기침체 확률은 '트럼프'가 복귀한 올해 1월 15%에서 23%로 뛰었습니다. 애틀란타 연방준비은행의 GDP Now 모델도 1분기 '역성장'(-2.4%)을 예측하고 있습니다.

 

Jobs Day in a nutshell? “Not much hiring, not much firing,” says @JoseTorresEcon.

Tune in for live analysis 🎥https://t.co/z6OF9kfMGU

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) March 7, 2025

 

Target is padding its cash reserves and preparing to raise prices. Burlington Stores is tightening its grip on inventory. And Costco expects to take action — even if it’s not yet sure what that will entail. https://t.co/qqGQFMaLnl

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

President Donald Trump’s trade wars and sanctions are tightening the market for heavy crude, boosting prices for the sludgy oil and raising costs for the largest American refining center https://t.co/EHvoX9V9lK

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

The World Health Organization is asking some employees to consider early retirement in a bid to cut costs after Trump’s decision to withdraw https://t.co/XU6KCEFLGP

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

 

'트석열'(Trump Yoon) 갑니다. 중국 견제가 필요 없다는 게 아니라, 디테일 없이 그냥 심플하게 후려친 '트럼프'發 '관세'·무역 전쟁에 중국이 보복관세를 단행해서 '농산물'과 미국 군수·방산기업 '28곳'을 제재 목록에 포함시켰죠. 식표품 가격 상승이 불가피합니다.

 

Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market https://t.co/sWXMvYcubD

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

“The relationship has been changed forever.” After President Trump followed through on his trade threats, some business and political leaders in Canada don't see an easy road back. Read more in Bay Street Edition, our weekly newsletter. https://t.co/58xxVKotPy

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Wall Street traders this week were hit by the biggest cross-asset losses since the Fed’s monetary-tightening campaign peaked in 2023. Blame tariffs, softening growth, a potentially revitalized Europe, and more. https://t.co/TBzBrJGFTM

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

The current debt-ceiling impasse could threaten the Fed’s ongoing balance-sheet runoff causing gyrations in the central bank’s liabilities that create volatility in money-market rates, according to New York Fed’s Roberto Perli https://t.co/xeNvbksmvH

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 6, 2025

 

 

한국 증권가 애널리스트들이 욕을 먹고 있는데요. '트럼프'의 "오락가락"으로 인해 서학개미들의 뉴욕증시 계좌가 탈탈 털린 가운데, 윤석열 석방에 '화들짝' 놀란 '한국증시'는 주요 섹터를 데이·스윙으로 순환매를 치고 있으니 변동성이 높아 롱포지션이 안 되니까 심리에 취약한 개인 투자자가 버티지를 못하니 수익률이 나올 리가 없죠.

 

Trump Family's DeFi Project Stocked Up on Crypto Assets Ahead of White House Crypto Summit https://t.co/yhtwPfP0cs

— Gizmodo (@Gizmodo) March 6, 2025

 

There’s a lot that rhymes between Trump’s golden age and the Gilded Age https://t.co/sUTo1Z5bxe

— Businessweek (@BW) March 6, 2025

 

Trump said he could get a deal with PGA Golf and Saudi-backed LIV Golf done in 15 minutes. What's taking so long? https://t.co/YciFuOyoTT

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

How is the typical American thinking about their wealth amid all this economic uncertainty?

Join @JonathanJLevin, @JoseTorresEcon and @AllisonSchrager for live analysis 🎥https://t.co/z6OF9kfMGU

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) March 7, 2025

 

 

멕시코·캐나다 '관세'가 시행되면 과일 값이 얼마인지 채소 값이 얼마인지 알고는 사나? "월급빼고 다 올랐다"는 미국 물가 살만 한가요? 연방정부에서 세금으로 월급 나오고 자칭 "빛의 제왕"이자 '부동산' 억만장자라 등 따숩고 '배불러서' 모를 수도 있습니다.

 

DeepSeek is in the drivers seat.

Democratic states have a smart-car problem & for those that don’t act quickly and decisively, it’s about to become a severe national security headache.

Some work from me for @ASPI_org👇https://t.co/hrCsu88HIi

— Danielle Cave (@DaniellesCave) February 24, 2025

 

Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs are forcing manufacturers to raise prices and rethink investments https://t.co/VRyW5rDMGn

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

DoorDash, TKO, Williams-Sonoma and Expand Energy will be added to the S&P 500 index in the latest quarterly weighting change https://t.co/H8hJ2gzQgy

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Donald Trump’s trade war is causing chaos for farmers and food producers on both sides of the US-Canada border, as businesses grapple with how to disentangle deeply connected supply chains https://t.co/2B9SqqiU5a

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

 

'트럼프'發 Stagflation 혹은 경기침체('R의 공포') 조짐이 나타났으며 1분기 '역성장'이 예측된 만큼 기업들이 대비를 해야하기 때문에 비용절감을 위해 가격을 올리거나 량을 줄여 소비자에게 피해를 전가하는 Shrinkflation, 前모델 재탕·삼탕을 한 아이폰 디자인 동결이나 신형 맥북에어 등 R&D 비용 축소, 노동자 고용을 축소하거나 해고를 늘려야 합니다.

 

Being a Manhattan homeowner got even more expensive last year. https://t.co/kpoKauvkLc

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

A longtime cheap breakfast for on-the-go New Yorkers — the bacon, egg and cheese sandwich — has now jumped to $8 https://t.co/8mi9FHwviK

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increased uncertainty in the US economic outlook, but said officials don’t need to rush to adjust policy. https://t.co/m9gPeL8ebQ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said it’s likely appropriate for the US central bank to hold interest rates steady for “some time,” pointing to upside risks to inflation. https://t.co/5XKY6MPkkT

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

 

'트석열'이 '前정부 탓'을 한 달걀 값 등 '농산물' 가격과 '자동차' 가격이 오를 건데, 올해 4회에서 2회로 축소하겠다고 점도표에 찍어 놓은 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) 금리가 4.25%~4.50%죠. 파월 의장은 "인플레이션이 오르면 금리인하 횟수를 더 줄이겠다"고 말하였습니다.

 

US consumers dialed back the pace of borrowing in February after a near-record increase a month earlier. https://t.co/wc1Qe9FH4P

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 7, 2025

 

Happy one-year anniversary to FOIA Files! To celebrate our docu-versary, we've compiled a list of the greatest hits from the past 12 months https://t.co/oht5tq9CDh

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Barclays' board gave Jes Staley its full support despite bank officials seeing more than 1,000 emails that shed new light on their embattled chief executive’s relationship with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein https://t.co/cHrdEwCCP3

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

Donald Trump wants to give big corporations tax cuts - supposedly to incentivize them to do research.

Here’s the catch: these companies already did that research years ago. So these tax giveaways are exactly that — giveaways.

Billionaires win, families lose. pic.twitter.com/X1vgmuTd1d

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) March 7, 2025

 

 

 

물가 비싸다고 아우성인데 '트럼프'가 폐지했고 '일론 머스크'가 찬성한 세액공제도 없이 '테슬라'(목표 주가 150 달러) 사려고 대출을 받거나 카드론 쓰라고? 할 거면 하고, 말 거면 때려치던가 '관세'를 하고는 싶은데 자산시장 보니 욕은 먹게 생겼고 질질 끌고 있으니까 '진절머리'가 나니 투자심리만 악화되면서 주식 던져버리는 겁니다. 

 

Trump may implement reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products as soon as Friday, threatening again to disrupt crossborder trade https://t.co/ee7BQtXczu

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 7, 2025

 

⚕️ Health care was the biggest driver of employment, adding 52,000 jobs in Feb.@AllisonSchrager says that — in addition to education — this could be a structural shift in the economy. “That’s not necessarily a bad thing, and it’s not a temporary thing.”https://t.co/z6OF9kfMGU

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) March 7, 2025

 

Breaking News: South Carolina executed a prisoner with a firing squad, a method that had not been used in the U.S. since 2010. https://t.co/TR3YTjw4pR

— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 8, 2025

 

60 years ago, a group of brave civil rights organizers marched across the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama in the pursuit of justice and equality. Today we’re reminded of their courageous sacrifices, and tasked with the responsibility of doing what we can to carry forward… pic.twitter.com/5dV1aWVsC0

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) March 7, 2025

 

 

'트럼프'는 오바마케어(Affordable Care ActA)와 같은 연방정부 주도의 보험제도를 축소하고, 민간 보험사 및 민간 의료기관을 통한 의료서비스를 '확대'하고 있으며 '글로벌 빅파마'를 대상으로 한 보편적 '관세' 등, 기존보다 급진적인 정책들도 있습니다.

 

▲'관세'를 정치적 전략으로 쓰며 '금리'와 '환율'에 '재앙' 같은 '주댕이'를 가만 두지를 않은 ★'트럼프'★와 '주댕이'를 가만 두질 않는 '미국'판 김건희, 親'중국' '테슬라'(TSLA) DOGE 수장 '병신 광대' ★'일론 머스크'★ 감옥 운동 중입니다.▲

 

▲ '블로그'의 모든 글은 저작권법의 보호를 받습니다. 어떠한 '상업적인 이용'도 허가하지 않으며, 이용('불펌') 허락을 하지 '않습니다'.

▲ 사전협의 없이 본 콘텐츠 무단 도용, 전재 및 복제, 배포를 금합니다. 이를 어길 시 '민, 형사상' '책임'을 질 수 있습니다.