영국 금리인하 걸림돌은 트럼프..."영럼프(UK Trump) 나이절 패라지가 웬 말이냐?"

Here's what you need to know to start your day https://t.co/sfGsJaAQiP

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 16, 2025

 

🔴 Musk’s X pays Farage thousands for posts that go viralhttps://t.co/d1jAJ4capq

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) January 10, 2025

 

Here's the latest news and analysis from the City of London and beyond https://t.co/HNTHTFrL2l

— Bloomberg (@business) January 16, 2025

 

Batesy's Europe Open Report https://t.co/8j7K8CYJWW

— Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) January 16, 2025

 

 

'12월 CPI' 기준으로 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) 금리인하에 걸림돌이 되고 있는 항목들 중에 에너지(유가·천연가스·전기요금)가 있는데, '우크라이나' 사태는 복귀 즉시 24시간 안에 끝내겠다던 '트럼프'가 "상황이 바뀌었다."고 포기를 했고 '이스라엘' 사태는 '트럼프'가 마무리를 지을 수 있을지에 관해 '의문'이 제기되고 있습니다.

 

Rachel Reeves under pressure with UK debt costs near 1998 levels https://t.co/so0idqq8OT via @highisland pic.twitter.com/TQk66ZKwzX

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 7, 2025

 

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will look at fresh cuts to public spending over tax hikes if soaring UK borrowing costs wipe out her fiscal headroom https://t.co/qidD9c9j4F

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 8, 2025

 

Less than three months after delivering her first Budget, Rachel Reeves is running into treacherous fiscal waters. https://t.co/Nw8bTeP9On pic.twitter.com/6fD20JCeqF

— Financial Times (@FT) January 9, 2025

 

Tesco says its share of the UK market reached the highest since 2016 after the supermarket saw strong volume growth on food sales https://t.co/AYB41XNAt8

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 9, 2025

 

The Labour Party’s approach to education typifies the British government’s broader failings. It is fiddling with what works and not yet dealing with what doesn’t https://t.co/wunFHTY2mT

Illustration: Ben Hickey pic.twitter.com/0Qcj2scRM2

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 5, 2025

 

 

부채, 재정, 투자 이민을 가게 만드는 과도한 증세, '기업 위축'과 '주택 가격'이 반복해서 문제로 지적되고 있는 영국의 12월 CPI가 예상치 2.6%를 하회한 2.5%로 집계됐습니다. 11월 CPI 2.6% 둔화된 수준으로 영란은행(BoE)의 물가 전망치에 '부합'했습니다. 근원 CPI는 3.2%, PPI는 전월·전년 대비 0.1% 상승했습니다.

 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer says he has “full confidence” in Rachel Reeves and stresses that his government would stick to its fiscal rules in response to a surge in borrowing costs https://t.co/DXB9aQOPKc

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 13, 2025

 

In the early 2000s, British politicians were worried about the low level of savings in the UK. Now the trend is reversed. Plus, get the best of Bloomberg's reporting in 2024. Get The Readout with @AllegraStratton https://t.co/MhXv2U7f7h

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) December 31, 2024

 

 

If the London Stock Exchange is to lose its companies to takeovers, at least the bidders might be British, says @hughes_chris https://t.co/jUA4i6PnqP

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) January 3, 2025

 

British fashion and homewares retailer Next says there will be a slowdown in sales and profit over the coming year as tax hikes take their toll https://t.co/66vxkOO44c

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 7, 2025

 

British consumers are set to spend over £1.8 billion on payments to help manage the power grid in 2025 as maintenance limits how much renewable electricity can move from Scotland to cities in England this year https://t.co/ABudCPzYJJ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 7, 2025

 

Hiring by British businesses fell at its fastest pace in 16 months as managers brace for Labour’s tax hikes, according to a survey closely watched by the Bank of England https://t.co/Ry6Qhtp9nE

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 9, 2025

 

The chipification of London restaurants: From fine dining rooms to buzzy French bistros, the french fry is now the star https://t.co/kDpjSt5hsO

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) January 14, 2025

 

이러한 하락은 주로 서비스 인플레이션의 감소에 기인했습니다. 서비스 인플레이션은 5.0%에서 4.4%로 떨어져 시장 전망치 4.8%와 BoE의 예측을 30bp 하회했습니다. 서비스 인플레이션의 변동성에 기여한 요소들로는 항공사, 패키지 여행, 교육, 숙박 등이 있습니다. 그러나 이러한 변동성이 큰 요소들을 제외한 핵심 서비스 인플레이션은 5.3%에서 5.2%로 소폭 하락했습니다.

 

British retailer Next is warning about the effects of Rachel Reeves’ budget. It shouldn’t be ignored, @AndreaFelsted writes https://t.co/iiHaUWZtYh

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) January 7, 2025

 

Reeves steps up pressure on UK regulators to scrap anti-growth rules https://t.co/HwidHVgrKE

— Financial Times (@FT) January 13, 2025

 

Rachel Reeves had her first big chance to respond to the market chaos of the past week today. Get the Readout with @PronouncedAlva https://t.co/mVlQu6k5hZ

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 14, 2025

 

After a torrid time in the UK gilts market, today's relatively tame UK inflation data will have been greeted with relief by the Bank of England and by chancellor Rachel Reeves. A February interest rate cut now looks very likely. https://t.co/uuSFCVXbxy

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 15, 2025

 

"Higher for longer" is back with a vengeance, with strong US economic data meaning that central bank rate cut expectations are receding fast. That will make for a turbulent year - particularly for a storm-tossed British economy. https://t.co/UVAetGwfuX

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 13, 2025

 

 

2월 첫 금리인하를 예상한 BofA의 분석가들은 여전히 BoE가 신중한 태도를 유지하고 분기별 금리 인하 속도를 고수하며 이번 하락을 근거로 인하 속도를 높이지는 않을 것으로 보고 있습니다. '그 이유'는 1) 변동성이 큰 요소들이 이번 하락 폭의 일부를 설명하고 있습니다.

 

Slower inflation looked like a pleasant surprise for the British economy, when figures for December were published on Wednesday morning — but economists have noticed an unusually festive reason why the data may have been dragged down https://t.co/MxIK1sZK1Q

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) January 16, 2025

 

Synthesia, an artificial intelligence startup that lets businesses produce lifelike video avatars, has raised $180 million in a funding round making it one of Britain’s largest AI companies https://t.co/ZQ8ERZ69d3

— Bloomberg Technology (@technology) January 15, 2025

 

Confidence among British manufacturers tumbled to a two-year low in December amid a slump in exports and mounting global trade tensions https://t.co/QWOTwLpFys

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 2, 2025

 

British savers are the most averse to investing in stocks among G-7 economies, according to an analysis by Abrdn https://t.co/QdAF20CoAs pic.twitter.com/FKn3xzVqbk

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 3, 2025

 

Few would call 2024 a brilliant year for the British economy. But if there was one pleasant surprise, it was that inflation fell further, and faster, than most forecasters had expected.

Now, though, cracks are beginning to show https://t.co/tRXIHXug7q 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 3, 2025

 

Lloyd’s of London CEO John Neal explains the difficulty of using artificial intelligence and how climate change is impacting premiums https://t.co/86GqNpMKj0

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) January 9, 2025

 

On this episode of In the City, a look at Britain’s latest market woes and how the turmoil could derail the government’s economic plans https://t.co/wBsnaJ5wXs

— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) January 14, 2025

 

 

2) 기업들이 높아진 국민보험기여금(NICs)을 가격에 더 강하게 반영하고 있다고 강조하고 있는데, 이는 아직 반영되지 않았기 때문입니다. 국가생활임금(NLW), NICs, 에너지 가격의 상승은 앞으로 몇 달간 인플레이션을 더 높일 것이며, 이는 BoE가 계속 신중한 태도를 유지하게 할 것입니다"라고 보고서에서 밝혔습니다.

 

Global bond markets have started 2025 with a bout of turbulence, to the point where there's even talk of brand new "Liz Truss moments". That could prove a particular headache for Britain's current chancellor, Rachel Reeves. https://t.co/r2kqbOMz8H

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 8, 2025

 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s deputy says the gilt market is functioning as normal and underlying demand for UK debt is strong https://t.co/J7kSb6HGHr

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 9, 2025

 

The bond selloff that's hit the UK has left the economic project of Chancellor Rachel Reeves in tatters https://t.co/r14sLsKZKD

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 10, 2025

 

UK housing market at risk from bond turmoil, surveyors warn https://t.co/Ag1QeCWrVR via @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/QbrKiTFzqE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 16, 2025

 

 

12월 영국 인플레이션이 하락했다는 데이터 발표 이후 트레이더들은 올해 BOE가 더 많은 금리 인하를 단행할 것으로 '예상'하고 있습니다. 연간 기준으로 머니 마켓은 25bp씩 두 차례 50bp의 금리 인하를 반영하고 있으며, 이에 대응해여 Gilts 수익률이 '전 구간'에서 큰 폭으로 상승했습니다. 그러나 Rachel Reeves 재무장관이 '직면한 문제'는 여전히 지속되고 있습니다.

 

Ailbhe Rea: Is it Time to Sell Shares in Rachel Reeves? https://t.co/0psjKuVMXE

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 10, 2025

 

Kemi Badenoch says Labour were "congratulating themselves for having the first female chancellor" instead of having "some one actually qualified to do the job"

The PM says Chancellor Rachel Reeves will "be in place for many many years"#PMQs https://t.co/28NfCnrtVh pic.twitter.com/li8S5N4FHi

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 15, 2025

 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer says Rachel Reeves will be Britain’s finance minister for “many years to come,” his strongest backing yet for his chancellor in the wake of market turmoil https://t.co/lUP4R5Eqnn

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) January 15, 2025

 

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has emerged relatively unscathed from a series of high-stakes tests this week. Her next challenge will be proving that she can shore up her battered economic agenda https://t.co/vuJ5lUFs2r

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 15, 2025

 

 

 

BoE 금리 결정 위원회의 최근 임명자인 Alan Taylor가 영국 경제 둔화 징후에 대응하여 신속한 금리 인하를 '촉구'한 것으로 전해졌습니다.  Leeds University에서 발표할 예정이었던 연설문에 따르면, "인플레이션 퇴치의 마지막 단계에 있지만, 경제가 약화되고 있어 연착륙을 유지하기 위해 금리를 정상 수준으로 되돌릴 때입니다."라고 말했습니다

 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves can probably breathe a small sigh of relief, as contrary to expectations, inflation has dropped.

But does she have room to relax?@skynewsniall and @pkelso take stock of the figures with @pkelso on the #Daily podcast ⬇️

🎧 https://t.co/IJafU5kn4H

— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 16, 2025

 

Reeves faces credibility test after reprieve from UK markets https://t.co/LKLYkVmMve via @Hariboconomics @Joe_Mayes @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/LdoQDCO0ir

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 15, 2025

 

UK inflation came in slightly lower than expected in December, offering Chancellor Rachel Reeves some breathing room amid a difficult period of news. Will it be enough? Get The Readout with @AllegraStratton https://t.co/QrBgKzbKDR

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) January 15, 2025

 

UK growth disappoints in the first month after Reeves’ budget https://t.co/oagOnQI1Vu via @PhilAldrick @tomelleryrees @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/D8xFF889Ed

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) January 16, 2025

 

Taylor는 지난 1년 동안 인플레이션과 관련된 위험이 변화했으며, 2024년에 걸쳐 예상보다 더 빠르게 둔화되고 있다고 언급했습니다. 인플레이션이 야기하는 위협이 줄어들고 있는 반면, 영국 경제의 '하방 시나리오' 가능성이 '높아졌다'고 지적했습니다.

 

▲ 언론과 표현의 자유를 "입틀막"하고 블로그에 '글 썼다'고 '형사기소'한 '미국'과 ★'한국'★에서 '핵무장'과 '증시 논란'의 '국정농단' '김건희' "오빠" '윤로남불'('구속 사유') 12.3 '내란 수괴' '윤석열'과 '국민의힘' '감옥' 운동 중입니다.▲

 

▲'채권'과 '달러' 투자의 '정석'(定石)으로 '금리·환율' 재앙이 언론사 명예훼손 고발로 '돈 뜯어'낸 '새 대가리'(birdbrain) 공화당 '성폭행범' '중국' '관세'맨 ★'트럼프'★와 '주댕이'를 가만 두질 않는 '미국'판 김건희, '친중' '테슬라'(TSLA) ★'일론 머스크'★ '탄핵' 운동 중입니다.▲

 

▲ '블로그'의 모든 글은 저작권법의 보호를 받습니다. 어떠한 '상업적인 이용'도 허가하지 않으며, 이용('불펌') 허락을 하지 '않습니다'.

▲ 사전협의 없이 본 콘텐츠 무단 도용, 전재 및 복제, 배포를 금합니다. 이를 어길 시 '민, 형사상' '책임'을 질 수 있습니다.